Iowa Republican Caucus Results:
Mike Huckabee: 34%
Mitt Romney: 25%
Fred Thompson: 13%
John McCain: 13%
Ron Paul: 10%
Rudy Giulani: 4%
Duncan Hunter: 1%
Alan Keyes: <1%
Now that Mike Huckabee has handily won the Iowa caucus, I can tell you why I think Iowa was so important.
My predictions:
The momentum from this victory will likely catapult Mike Huckabee ahead of Rudy Giulani into 3rd place in New Hampshire's primary, which takes place January 8th. The Real Clear Politics Average places Giulani just half a point ahead of Huckabee, 10% to 9.5%.
John McCain will likely pull away from Mitt Romney for first place. Then...
Romney, reeling from two debilitating blows in Iowa and New Hampshire, will waver in Michigan, where the primary takes place in 11 days. Currently, Romney leads Huckabee there by only 1 point.
With increasing momentum from three impressive performances, Huckabee will benefit from strong evangelical support in South Carolina (January 19). As of now, he leads Romney there by an average of 6.5%.
Then, with three wins and a victory over Giulani in New Hampshire, Huckabee will overtake Giulani in Florida (1/29), where Mike currently trails by only 2 percentage points, according to Real Clear Politics.
By this point, both Romney and Giulani will be in a bad way, with no momentum, heading into Super-Duper Tuesday.
Admittedly, I'm no psychic, prophet, or political forecaster. After all, I projected 6 months ago that the general election would come down to Mike Gravel and Hugh Cort (JUST KIDDING!). But I feel that these are sincere, logical projections, although I may be overestimating the momentum factor, and I most certainly am not accounting for any unforeseen setbacks for Huckabee.
More thoughts:
~Fred Thompson essentially lengthened his campaign by the skin of his teeth, beating out John McCain for third place by the slimmest of margins. They both had approximately 13% of the vote. The question remains, though, where can Thompson win? His campaign seems to be riding on the hopes of a Huc-collapse. He's set to finish far in back of the rest of the pack (including Paul) in New Hampshire. Several polls have him at a feeble 2% in that state. South Carolina is where he is doing best in the pre-Super-Tuesday states, but, even there, he's presently slated to finish in fourth.
~John McCain's fourth-place finish could temper his recent surge, but Romney's second-place finish in Iowa should help McCain in New Hampshire.
~A fifth-place finish with 10% of the vote would not be good for most serious candidates, but it's good enough for Ron Paul. Considered a non-viable candidate by some because of his stance on foreign policy, Paul proved last night that he can get significant chunks of the voting public to join his so-called "Revolution." In all likelihood, that won't translate into the Republican nomination, but it's worth noting.
~On the Democratic side, Chris Dodd (<1%) and Joe Biden (1%) immediately withdrew themselves from the race when the results came in. On the Republican side, I don't know how much longer Duncan Hunter (1%) can hold out for a miracle. It will be a shame if and when he has to drop out.
~Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, and Alan Keyes might stay in the race just for the fun of it. Bill Richardson, newly established as the only viable "second-tier" candidate on the democratic side, still has something to play for.
~Although you wouldn't know it by watching the media coverage, Wyoming, the least-populated state in the Union, finishes up its Republican caucus process tomorrow. With no public polling done there and little attention from the candidates, no one knows who will win there. Will it even matter? We shall see.
We've only just begun, people. If you haven't yet, go ahead and buckle your seatbelts now. And don't stop praying!
Alasan Bermain Judi Kasino Online
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6 years ago
25 comments:
Shazam, Despite Huckabee’s liberal record, Gomer Pyle charisma, and hate mongering against Mormonism, Huckabee pulls out a victory. Since Huck has no chance of beating Obama in a national election, the people have spoken and they would rather tear The Republican Party up then vote for a viable candidate. Thanks Iowa for splitting the party between social and economic conservatives, leaving us with McCain (who has no money to run a campaign) right before one of the most difficult presidential elections in recent history. If Mitt loses in New Hampshire and Michigan due to the blow in Iowa I will be obligated to vote for Obama in retaliation for your bigotry.
I GUESS WE ARE TOGETHER ON WANTING A CHRISTIAN PRESIDENT: MITT ROMNEY.
Even a president that teaches his kids not to torture animals. Evangelicals are devils according to The BIBLE: James 2:19
17 Even so faith, if it hath not works, is dead, being alone. 18 Yea, a man may say, Thou hast faith, and I have works: shew me thy faith without thy works, and I will shew thee my faith by my works. 19 Thou believest that there is one God; thou doest well: the devils also believe, and tremble. 20 But wilt thou know, O vain man, that faith without works is dead?
I can assure you that I do not want a "Christian President". Huckabee is simply an uneducated hillbilly. The man has a 2 year degree from Ouachita Baptist University. He then dropped out of "Baptist" college. Would you hired someone with a degree from Quchita Baptist University? I think not. I will do everything in my power to destroy Mike Huckabee on the Internet. Mitt Romney is by far the best choice for the Republican nomination.
http://liberalchristians.blogspot.com
Eric:
1. Huckabee hasn't hate-mongered against Mormonism. He made a strategic mistake by making an off-hand, gossip-type comment about Mormonism. But it wasn't anything close to hate-mongering. Unless you can link to a credible article showing some other quotes of his.
2. So I guess Romney's positions on abortion, gay rights, gun control, immigration, and raising taxes doesn't mean that HE has a liberal record? The door swings both ways.
3. Iowa didn't split the party. It's the significant flaws of candidates like Romney that have.
4. I'm not bigoted against Romney. I would be severely wary of him even if he was not a Mormon. But I do have firm beliefs about the benefits of having a Christian President, and the disadvantages of having a Mormon for a President. That doesn't make me a bigot, as emotion-driven, verbal bomb-throwing name-callers like you seem to think.
5. Vote for Obama? You're obviously not a true, dedicated conservative, because no such one would support the incarnate opposite of a conservative (Obama), just to "retaliate" against the misconceived bigotry of people like me. I'm sure a double-standard is present here, too. I'm sure you wouldn't mind if others, to "fight against those bigoted Christians," voted for Romney out of spite, would you? Yet that would be the epitome of bigotry and intolerance.
6. I don't understand how we're together on wanting Mitt Romney as a Christian President when Romney is a flip-flopping Mormon.
7. That is perhaps the worst, most illogical and nonsensical interpretation of James 2:19 I have ever heard in my life. What don't you get about "the devils ALSO believe, AND TREMBLE"?
Anonymous comments:
I'm sorry, but your comments were not relevant to the parameters of discussion of this site.
Last anonymous commenter, I will not allow SPAM, especially of the variety hostile to this site's message. I apologize, I should have noted that in the comment introduction. Had you had an instructive, respectable blog, I might have let it be. But after checking out your blog, I can't in good conscience allow you to use this site as a billboard for it.
Liberal Christian:
You have a perfectly legitimate right to feel the way you do, although I find it intriguing that you, as a professing Christian, would be actively AGAINST having a Christian President. "Wanting a Christian President" does not simply mean Mike Huckabee is the only option, although he appears to be the most viable candidate currently. I've left the door open for several other candidates, including especially Duncan Hunter--though I can't seem to fight off the pragmatism that says he won't win.
I should add, though, Liberal Christian, to call Huckabee an uneducated hillbilly is pushing the envelope.
Also, I would advise you, for Mitt Romney's sake, not to take that approach. It will backfire. Then, it will force you to say that "Mitt Romney was not smart enough to beat an 'uneducated hillbilly,'" even with a ton more money.
1) hate-monger: quotes from Huck blog (which is completely edited because they never let me comment)
As evangelicals we cannot stand for this mormon garbage to get into office. They even believe Jesus and Satan were brothers. My vote is gods vote, Huckabee 08!
would never vote for a mormon, they are a cult and not a legitimate religion. Yes, they have a right to exist and run for office, I have a right not to vote for them also. They do not serve the same God as Christians and we might as well elect a witch.
Are you really that naïve, HUCKABEE AS A DEGREE IN THEOLOGY (he really doesn’t he lied about that) and was a minister do you really think he doesn’t know that he is saying when he talks about Mormons. It doesn’t matter if he apologizes, his goal is already accomplished. Do you not know how negative smear campaigns work? You say something awful, then follow it up with: I did really mean that, sorry. (but when you show someone record you are going to far like Mitt did)
Furthermore Huckabee believes that Jesus and Satan are Brothers (or did he not bother to read the Bible). Like other Christians, Mormons we believe Jesus is the divine son of God. Satan is a fallen angel… As the apostle Paul wrote, God is the Father of all," That means that all beings were created by God and are his spirit children. Christ, however, was the only begotten in the flesh and we worship him as the son of God and the savior of mankind. In summary, because everything was created by God we are all spiritual bothers and sisters. Duh
2) Abortion: I am a physician an had a similar conversion when faced with the reality of it. Plus he has fought all new legislation in his state, gained the support of all pro-life groups in his state. Gay rights have never changed equal treatment of gays but against gay marriage (any Christian can’t disagree). AS far as taxes and immigration you obviously don’t know his record (and you obviously don’t know Hucks).
3) It only takes 2 neurons to understand that the party is falling apart between social and economic conservatives. And if you think Huck is going to be the nominee you are delusional. You are going to be left with Rudy who doesn’t believe anything you believe.
4) your statement about not being bigoted, is bigoted. You consider a Mormon lesser of a candidate based on his religion (this is the definition). And being a Mormon is a Christian President (Websters definition: one who professes belief in the teachings of Jesus Christ). Mormons believe the same fundamental beliefs, Jesus is the Son of God and the Savior of mankind, Through his death all men are saved, They believe the Bible to be the word of God. Every sociology study done on Mormons has shown that through their belief in Jesus they have the lowest illegal drug use rates, adultery, sex before marriage, etc, then any other Christian denomination. Furthermore they have a longer life span.
5) I am a true conservative, I have never voted for a democrat my entire life. If you vote for Huck then you are only a social conservative not an economic conservative. Huck’s history “includes numerous tax hikes, ballooning government spending, and increased regulation…” “Mike Huckabee wants to hide the fact that he and Bill Clinton share a 'D' lifetime rating for their tax and spend policies," says the Cato Institute's Scorecard of Governors. No candidate holds social and economic credentials except Mitt.
And yes I will vote for Obama over a bigoted party. I live and grew up in the South, but I am going to rally Utah behind Obama. Utah has looked passed religious differences and always voted for a candidate with different beliefs, a luxury not afforded to them. And you are delusional if you think Huck can beat Obama anyway. All this republican squabbling is for nothing if you don’t get a candidate that can beat Obama in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Republicans have to attract some Northeasterners to survive. Mitt can attracted Northeasterners as he did in Massachusetts.
6) Mormons are Christians. And a flip-flopper that can has the mojo to surpass Ronaldus Magnus as an intelligent charismatic spokesmen for the conservative cause. We have been walking in wilderness for two decades, with only technical victories, void of inspiration. The Party can not survive on the elderly and Southerners alone. We need Mitt’s intelligence, charisma, and articulated ideas to talk to the next generation of Republicans. Any man that can talk Massachusetts into voting for a conservative has got to be good. Other candidates will result in the Bob Dole fiasco, sucking the energy out of the party. Huck only perpetuates the failures of the republican party in the last mid-term election. Every intelligent conservative thinker has said as much Rush, George Will, etc.
7) It is hard to miss interpret “faith without works is dead” and that of course even devil believe that there is a God and that Jesus is the Savior, but those that truly believe “will shew thee my faith by my works” not merely in word only.
Smart move. Use your TrustMitt profile. :)
1.) I'm sorry: I cannot speak for the way Huckabee's site moderates its comments.
I also cannot speak for his knowledge of Mormonism. But it's intriguing that you'd say he is "hate-mongering" and then say that he SHOULD BELIEVE IT!
The difference is not that Jesus was "begotten in the flesh." The difference is that Jesus was not created. He is eternal, one with the Father, from the beginning. (John 1)
Paul said that God is the "Father of the all" for his purposes in that dissertation, but not in every sense. The unsaved are "of their father, the devil."
Christians are "adopted as children of God." (Ephesians 1, I believe)
2.) Romney still believes that abortion can be the "right" decision in the cases of rape and incest. Look at his site: "I am pro-life. I believe that abortion is the wrong choice except in cases of incest, rape, and to save the life of the mother." Do you believe, like him, that we should be enacting capital punishment on the innocent bystanders/offspring of a crime?
As for gay rights, could you clarify for me: does Romney support ENDA and similar legislation?
3.) I never said the party isn't splitting between social and economic conservatives (though I don't think that Huckabee is as fiscally liberal as you do). What I said is that it's NOT IOWA'S FAULT, as you asserted.
4.) I believe, ceteris parabus (or near ceteris parabus), that a Mormon is a "lesser" candidate because I believe the Bible. Read my main posts and you will see that it has nothing to do with bigotry or hate. Also, the principle applies to atheists, Mormons, Buddhists, Hindus, witches, and members of all other false religions. Would you, as a Mormon (I think, by your use of the pronoun "we"), agree that those would make lesser candidates, or do you just blatantly disbelieve the Bible?
I do not believe Mormons are saved for several key reasons:
a) They believe God was once a man and that he is confined to a body of "flesh and bones."
b) They believe Mormons have the potential to become gods. ("As man is god once was, as god is man may become")
c) They believe the Bible is God's Word, only insofar as it has been translated correctly (Joseph Smith made upwards of 600 corrections to it).
d)Furthermore, they accept four books as scripture, and revelations from the president/prophet as scripture.
e)Mormons claim to be a part of the "One True Church," with Joseph Smith claiming that Christ told him all others were "wrong," their creeds "abominations," and their members "corrupt." (True to a certain extent, but not "all") They claim that all churches became heretical for a time before Mormonism arose. They claim that true and full salvation/exaltation is found only within Mormonism.
Those are very "fundamental" issues to me.
5.) So you admit that because of your conceived bigotry, you'd throw this country to a liberal who goes against everything you supposedly believe in. That makes no sense at all, except to say that you are more bigoted and prejudiced against Mike Huckabee than you are conservative and Christian.
I'm not going to get in an electability argument with you. Is Mitt more electable in Iowa? South Carolina? Michigan? Delaware? Georgia? Oklahoma? California? The electability arguments are pointless.
6.) Romney believes "we're not in a place right now that we can ban abortion." I don't call that type of ambition in a presidential candidate "inspiring."
Huckabee is widely considered more hopeful, likable, inspiring, charismatic, and genuine than Romney. Those are shallow characteristics, yes. But, sorry, you can't claim those for Romney.
7.) Then, you are claiming that NO evangelical shows their faith by their works?
Eric,
Computers are cold, online discourses can seem heartless, and my debating style is sometimes rough (even sarcastic).
I hope you will forgive me if you have gotten that impression. I want to be a persuader, not a polarizer.
You are way off on what Mormons believe. All of your points are mostly speculation, not church doctrine (even the book titled “Mormon Doctrine”, is not church doctrine, it was just a title to a book title). The church doctrine is actually limited to a few principles. Your blanket assertion that all Mormon believe this stuff is a gross misrepresentation of Mormonism.
1) your first point does not make sense, please clarify.
second of course Christ is eternal, this is a belief of our Church. Aside from my church I say: All things are eternal, even matter is eternal (as ether mass or energy, this is a physical law).
As far as One being goes: you are stuck in the Nicene Creed mannn! A doctrine conceived by that ideas of man, prior to that time there was a diversity of thought on the subject. So lets go to the authority Jesus him self:
Jesus praying with his disciples says…
John 17:11
And now I am no more in the world, but these are in the world, and I come to thee. Holy Father, keep through thine own name those whom thou hast given me, that they may be one, as we are.
In other words: Heavenly Father take the disciples that you gave me, that they may one with you as I (Jesus) is one with Heavenly Father.
Are the disciples and Jesus and Heavenly Father all the same being? Of course not. They are one though, one in purpose and manner. Furthermore, there are way more times in the scripture where Jesus is talking about God as a separate being, then scriptures talking about their oneness in purpose. Not to mention times like when Jesus was baptized and Heavenly Father spoke from a separate location (the heavens) saying this is my beloved son, etc.
Anyway This is all this is a waste of time EVERY CHRUCH INTERPRETS THE SCRIPTURES DIFFERENTLY THAT DOESN’T MAKE ONE CHURCH NON CHRISTIAN because you don’t agree.
AND Obviously I BELIEVE THE BIBLE, I am using it to explain my point of view.
And as far as “Paul said that God is the "Father of the all" for his purposes in that dissertation, but not in every sense. The unsaved are "of their father, the devil." I don’t know what your point is. Of course the lost souls are going to be adopted my devil. I guess you ageing that the devil has the power to create his own followers. Giving the devil the power to create puts him on the level with God. And if you believe that then your belief is way crazier then the Mormon belief that everything was created by God and some fell away as described in Revelations 12:7-9 “7 And there was war in heaven: Michael and his angels fought against the dragon; and the dragon fought and his angels,8 And prevailed not; neither was their place found any more in heaven.9 And the great dragon was cast out, that old serpent, called the Devil, and Satan, which deceiveth the whole world: he was cast out into the earth, and his angels were cast out with him.” Mormon belief does not differ much from this scripture and what Catholics and most Christians believe.
2) As far as abortion goes, is it wrong. Aside from a religious issue it is ethically wrong to end a human life when you have contractually agreed to house a life by the sexual act. Men are contractually bound by the act of sex, they have no out or termination of fatherhood once copulation has taken place. The same applies to females. In the case of rape and incest the female has not made any such contract. I have had to deal with some of these situations in my profession, and I would like to see you explain to a rape victim that she cant take the morning after pill. The fact remains that some women choose to keep the child and I applaud them. But I am unsure what my role is in it.
Aside from that on ethics, religiously I believe that Mormons are for the sanctity of all life.
As far as ENDA, I hope he does support it, it is Unchristian to discriminate against anyone, we are all children of God. Do we discriminate against Americans that have fornicated? It is a different subject matter entirely to grant new and extra rights to sexual transgression. Just like we should not give married rights to a couple fornicating, we should not give married rights to homosexuals. This has been Mitts consistent argument.
4) A Mormon is a Christian, and yes I would like a Christian running the country.
A) defunct doctrine (from the king follet discourse, not doctrine of the church)
b) “As man is god once was, as god is man may become” also from the king follet discourse and not doctrine. There is no way anyone can be equal to God. We do believe that we are children of God as Paul wrote:
Romans 8:16-17 16 The Spirit itself beareth witness with our spirit, that we are the children of God: 17 And if children, then heirs; heirs of God, and joint-heirs with Christ; if so be that we suffer with him, that we may be also glorified together.
We are children of God, and like any father he wants us to be like him and when we grow up to give us a place in his house.
C) of course we believe the Bible, when it is translated correctly. I have read the bible in two languages and I can testify that on some points the English version does not match up with the Spanish of Portuguese. So you believe that English is somehow sanctified by God. You believe that the prophets and disciples wrote the Bible in Old English and then passed it down for thousands of years unscathed?
D) once again you are stuck in the narrow vision of the present (as you are in the Nicene Creed). The bible in its present form and order (with the books included and excluded, and revelations at the end) has only been around a few hundred years (with even the Catholics having different books). Limiting the Bible to its present books is not even done by the Catholics, are you against the late President Kennedy being president.
E) we do believe that some churches have more light and knowledge then others (why would you choose one church over another if that was not true), but in no way do we believe that you have to be a Mormon to be saved. All men are saved from hell through the sacrifice of Jesus.
5) The country is already going to go to the liberals, Obama is not beatable by Gomer Pyle, Independent McCain (all the independents will vote for Obama), or abrasive New Yorker Rudy.
And yes Mitt would be more electable in South Carolina? Michigan? Delaware? Georgia? Oklahoma? California? If not for the bigotry.
7) When I go to your churchs you do seem to make a point of saying that works are meaningless.
Three cheers for Huckabee! I was impressed at his Iowa caucus results. I did not see it coming, but it's great news.
I can't wait to hear the results of the New Hampshire primary.
hip hip hooray, hip hip hooray, hip hip hooray, Huck will be even more smarter then Bush
Austin, great to see you around!
Don't expect to hear of another Hucka-win coming out of New Hampshire. It looks like John McCain will win there. But Huckabee should finish ahead of Rudy Giulani, and he has a shot at challenging Mitt Romney for the silver.
Anonymous,
I don't know what candidate you are supporting. But I'd warn you: that type of elitism, which apparently thinks that only a New Englander/New Yorker/metropolitan or a secularist (I don't know where you're coming from) can make a good, intelligent President is not a good strategy to win an election.
Eric,
I would like to continue this conversation, but I don't have the time to address everything right now, so I'll just point out some things that I can address quickly.
1. You first criticized Huckabee for his comments about Mormonism. Then you more or less said he should BELIEVE his "smear" comments, saying "Furthermore Huckabee believes that Jesus and Satan are Brothers (or did he not bother to read the Bible)."
2. Here's my problem with your argument against (some) abortion. When someone murders someone else, they hadn't previously engaged in a "contract of life." Yet murder is wrong. Abortion is the taking of a human life. You don't right a wrong (rape) with another wrong (abortion).
I'd like to see you tell a rape victim, "Since someone has done something terrible to you, it's ethical and moral for you to slaughter your baby." (Don't play semantics with the morning-after pill.)
As for ENDA, so you would approve of a law making it illegal for churches--or any other establishment--to not hire someone on the basis of their depraved behavior? Yes, I believe an establishment should be able to say, "I am not going to hire you because you are immoral." That's their prerogative.
4. So does that make you a bigot? Or just a believer?
7. "My" churches? So, if I find a Mormon church and it preaches all sorts of stuff you don't believe, can I classify that church as "your" church?
The fact is, "evangelical" encompasses a vast umbrella of churches, including some which are significantly off-track. That doesn't mean I am. It doesn't mean my church is. It doesn't even mean most churches necessarily are.
You could find legalistic churches on the opposite end of the spectrum, but that doesn't make all evangelicals legalistic.
Hi KA
Wow, this politics thing is so jumbled. I just wanted to come by and say Thank You again for wrting this blog. Even though you are being attacked apparently in this post please keep writing! Praying for you and for HIS will for America
AJM. a very small 15 yo
Thank you so much, AJM. I really appreciate it.
You are so welcome KA. On a side note I REALLY like your 2nd rule. Doesn't it weigh like 50 pounds?
I'm not sure. All I know is that, when I look at it, or in it, I feel like I use the same words WAY too often.
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