Post-Caucus Thoughts

Iowa Republican Caucus Results:

Mike Huckabee: 34%
Mitt Romney: 25%
Fred Thompson: 13%
John McCain: 13%
Ron Paul: 10%
Rudy Giulani: 4%
Duncan Hunter: 1%
Alan Keyes: <1%

Now that Mike Huckabee has handily won the Iowa caucus, I can tell you why I think Iowa was so important.

My predictions:

The momentum from this victory will likely catapult Mike Huckabee ahead of Rudy Giulani into 3rd place in New Hampshire's primary, which takes place January 8th. The Real Clear Politics Average places Giulani just half a point ahead of Huckabee, 10% to 9.5%.

John McCain will likely pull away from Mitt Romney for first place. Then...

Romney, reeling from two debilitating blows in Iowa and New Hampshire, will waver in Michigan, where the primary takes place in 11 days. Currently, Romney leads Huckabee there by only 1 point.

With increasing momentum from three impressive performances, Huckabee will benefit from strong evangelical support in South Carolina (January 19). As of now, he leads Romney there by an average of 6.5%.

Then, with three wins and a victory over Giulani in New Hampshire, Huckabee will overtake Giulani in Florida (1/29), where Mike currently trails by only 2 percentage points, according to Real Clear Politics.

By this point, both Romney and Giulani will be in a bad way, with no momentum, heading into Super-Duper Tuesday.

Admittedly, I'm no psychic, prophet, or political forecaster. After all, I projected 6 months ago that the general election would come down to Mike Gravel and Hugh Cort (JUST KIDDING!). But I feel that these are sincere, logical projections, although I may be overestimating the momentum factor, and I most certainly am not accounting for any unforeseen setbacks for Huckabee.

More thoughts:

~Fred Thompson essentially lengthened his campaign by the skin of his teeth, beating out John McCain for third place by the slimmest of margins. They both had approximately 13% of the vote. The question remains, though, where can Thompson win? His campaign seems to be riding on the hopes of a Huc-collapse. He's set to finish far in back of the rest of the pack (including Paul) in New Hampshire. Several polls have him at a feeble 2% in that state. South Carolina is where he is doing best in the pre-Super-Tuesday states, but, even there, he's presently slated to finish in fourth.

~John McCain's fourth-place finish could temper his recent surge, but Romney's second-place finish in Iowa should help McCain in New Hampshire.

~A fifth-place finish with 10% of the vote would not be good for most serious candidates, but it's good enough for Ron Paul. Considered a non-viable candidate by some because of his stance on foreign policy, Paul proved last night that he can get significant chunks of the voting public to join his so-called "Revolution." In all likelihood, that won't translate into the Republican nomination, but it's worth noting.

~On the Democratic side, Chris Dodd (<1%) and Joe Biden (1%) immediately withdrew themselves from the race when the results came in. On the Republican side, I don't know how much longer Duncan Hunter (1%) can hold out for a miracle. It will be a shame if and when he has to drop out.

~Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, and Alan Keyes might stay in the race just for the fun of it. Bill Richardson, newly established as the only viable "second-tier" candidate on the democratic side, still has something to play for.

~Although you wouldn't know it by watching the media coverage, Wyoming, the least-populated state in the Union, finishes up its Republican caucus process tomorrow. With no public polling done there and little attention from the candidates, no one knows who will win there. Will it even matter? We shall see.

We've only just begun, people. If you haven't yet, go ahead and buckle your seatbelts now. And don't stop praying!