Post-Primary Postulations

New Hampshire Republican Primary Results:

John McCain: 37%
Mitt Romney: 32 %
Mike Huckabee: 11%
Rudy Giulani: 9%
Ron Paul: 8%
Fred Thompson: 1%
Duncan Hunter: <1%
Alan Keyes: <1%

~No major miracle (a total victory) or minor miracle (second place) occurred for Huckabee last night. Yet, his third-place finish, ahead of Rudy Giulani, was still a solid one. He now has moved onto campaigning in Michigan and South Carolina, possessing a good shot at winning both of those states.

~Ironically, Huckabee's third-place finish will likely be viewed more positively than Romney's second-place performance. If he's not careful, Romney will be characterized as the "rich bridesmaid," who just can't buy a husband despite all her riches. Unless, of course, you want to classify Wyoming as a suitable "husband." It's not suitably sufficient for a legitimate presidential candidate--I'll tell you that much.

~The predictions I made after the Iowa Caucus are largely contingent upon the boost McCain gets as he rockets out of New Hampshire. He's currently polling third in Michigan behind Romney and Huckabee, a distant second in South Carolina to Huckabee, and fourth in Florida.

~Thompson came close to flat-lining. Today, as per my request (sort of), he said that he's "making his stand" in South Carolina. According to the Real Clear Politics Average, Fred is a whopping 23.3 points behind Huckabee, 10.7 behind McCain, and 7 behind Romney. Thompson is tied with Giulani at 9 percentage points.
It doesn't seem like such a wise decision for Thompson to pull a General Custer against such overwhelming odds. But, even with South Carolina appearing to be the equivalent of a 2-3 offsuit hand (to use a Texas Hold'Em analogy), it's his best opportunity to seriously compete in a state before February 5th (Super Tuesday). Although he's not in much worse shape in Michigan, Nevada, or Florida, Thompson's southern, folksy appeal is less advantageous in those states than it is in South Carolina, and the media will probably cover the latter more heavily anyway.

~In the most Libertarian state in Union, with a boatload of "Free Staters" and the motto "Live Free or Die," Ron Paul pulled off a rather ordinary performance. If he can't score better than fifth here, then where?

~In my aforementioned predictions, I failed to account for Nevada. There hasn't been any polling there since early December, so it's hard to tell what's happening there.

As John Edwards would say, there's two down. Forty-eight to go.

Interesting Read...

This is an interesting article about the British reaction to our electoral spectacle. It also compares our system to England's. I found it very intriguing...And it made me glad to be an American.

Pre-Primary Ponderings

The "first-in-the-nation" primaries are about to begin in New Hampshire, and here's what I'm thinking about:

~Multiple analysts have suggested that Mike Huckabee might--just might--pass Mitt Romney for second place in New Hampshire (behind a soaring John McCain), even though the polls don't even hint at such a possibility. One suggested that, since Huckabee is bringing out the young vote, the pollsters might not be reaching them.
If that scenario did transpire, it would dramatically increase Huckabee's already significant momentum, and it might just end--in all practicality--Mitt Romney's hopes at the nomination.

~It's more likely, however, that Huckabee will place a solid third, ahead of a stumbling Rudy Giulani. Although this type of finish wouldn't provide the boost that a silver or gold would, I think it would retain Huckabee's current momentum.

~It looks like Fred Thompson is going to place sixth. He's already admitted that they didn't really try in New Hampshire, basically professing contentment and resignation in the wake of a decisive defeat. Where's his campaign going? I personally like the guy--and most of his positions--but I want to see him put up a fight somewhere, or throw in the towel. Don't prolong the inevitable.

~Ron Paul will probably rank fifth. That's not too bad, by his standards, but, with New Hampshire being such an independent, libertarian state, the Libertarian Republican candidate has to be hoping for a better performance than the polls project. Otherwise, where does he plan to do better?

Please keep praying.