Pre-Ignition in Mich'gan

The proverbial key is soon to turn in the Motor City, and here's my pre-race analysis:

~ The polls aren't looking that good for Mike Huckabee in Michigan. It appears that McCain is receiving a momentous boost in support resulting from New Hampshire, and that, coupled with Mitt Romney's Michigan roots and stacks of money, looks like it could culminate in a disappointing third-place showing for Huckabee.

~It's hard to say now who Huckabee supporters should be rooting to win the Wolverine State, besides Huckabee himself, of course. Practically speaking, a loss for Romney could hammer the final nail in the coffin of his presidential hopes. However, the resultant McCain victory would likely launch McCain into a big win in South Carolina and, thereafter, another one in Florida. Although McCain isn't officially "not supported" on this site, I would not want to see him win the nomination (Read my "Ranking Their Positions" series on abortion, the sanctity of marriage, and the Right to Keep and Bear Arms; also, research his other positions)

~That being said, we saw in New Hampshire, on the Democratic side, that polls can't be trusted. Although there are numerous explanations for how the polls could have predicted so wrongly, one possibility is that the polls somehow reflected a false "momentum" that Obama supposedly carried out of Iowa. If that is true, and the polls have overblown McCain's momentum out of New Hampshire, Huckabee could still have a shot.

~By some quirk of the election process, Hillary Clinton is the only candidate on the Democratic Michigan ballot, and, in Michigan, Democrats, as well as independents, can choose to vote in the Republican primary. It's difficult to determine how that will affect the race. Huckabee's "populist" message may appeal to Democrats, and his social conservatism may appeal to some Michigan Catholics who may vote Democratically based upon their economic philosophies (I don't know with certainty that any of those exist, but I suppose that they do.). On the other hand, social moderates and liberals who are for a strong defense may lean towards Rudy Giulani or John McCain. In addition, with no competition from Barack Obama, John McCain has a clear shot at most of Michigan's independents.
So, the summation of that paragraph is that we will just have to wait and see.

~As I pointed out in a previous post, Fred Thompson has stated that he is "making his stand" in South Carolina. After a debate performance that was perceived by some (not me) as brilliant, Thompson looks like he is in decent shape. However, Michigan polls suggest that he will bring up the rear of all the candidates still invited to debates (Giulani, Huckabee, McCain, Paul, Romney, Thompson). Whereas McCain, Romney, or Huckabee could get a monumental kick in the pants coming into South Carolina after Michigan, Thompson won't.

~ Rudy Giulani will once again be an "also-ran," set to only come in ahead of Thompson. His performance in South Carolina could be even worse. I've got to give Rudy credit: for his own good or ill, he's making presidential electoral history with this strategy of putting all his eggs in the basket of Florida and some of the socially moderate Super Tuesday states.

~ Giulani's strategy has proven the lunacy of early national polls. Just days ago, he was maintaining his status as the Republican "national frontrunner." Now, he's down to third, even though the results so far were all accounted for in his plans.

Please pray, as always, for God's will to be done tomorrow in Michigan.